By Matthew Treskovich, CPA/PFS, MBA, CFP®, CMA
In the second quarter, markets continued to recover from the correction earlier in the year. The Federal Reserve increased interest rates again in June. Fundamental economic data continued to paint a positive picture. The job market remained strong, and consumer spending trends hinted at further growth.
US consumers and workers continue to do well
Heading into the 2008 recession, consumer debt as a percentage of disposable income was at a 30-year high. In the years following the recession, consumer debt as a percentage of income fell to a 30-year low. Through the end of the second quarter, consumer debt remains at historically low levels. Earlier in the year, we saw that in some regions there were more open jobs than individuals looking for work. This situation has expanded to cover the entire country. There are now more job openings in the United States than unemployed workers. Almost 70% of the US economy is consumer spending. Low debt and good employment prospects mean that consumers will likely continue to spend money. A recession caused by declining consumer spending is not likely this year.
Global economy still expanding
The global economy is still in expansion, although some parts of the world appear to be slowing. The steady and synchronized global economic growth we saw last year has given way to a more volatile environment this year. In the United States, economic indicators are still positive. In other parts of the world such as China, there are signs of slowing growth. Earnings growth for US companies continues to improve. The earnings growth of companies in emerging markets appears to be slowing. Tariffs are still a risk to global economic growth, but an all-out trade war is not the most likely outcome.
Diversification is still important
In 2017, large company stocks outperformed small company stocks. So far this year, we’ve seen the opposite occur. Through the end of the second quarter of 2018, small company stocks have outperformed large company stocks. This is a great example of why it is important to stick to a consistent diversified asset allocation. In any given year, certain parts of the market will outperform, and other parts will under-perform. Proper diversification means having the right mix of different assets in your portfolio. Periodic re-balancing helps keep your portfolio properly diversified. Both of these things are very important for investors to who want to achieve and maintain financial independence.
Long term investors know that chasing performance reduces returns. A properly diversified, periodically re-balanced, portfolio is still the best way to get good returns and reduce risk in the long run.
Matthew Treskovich is the Chief Investment Officer for CPS Investment Advisors.